Joint Centre for Mesoscale Meteorology (JCMM)
Short-range forecasting of stratocumulus: initialization V prediction
by Susan P Ballard, Simon D Jackson and B Macpherson
This paper addresses the ability of the UK Met Office NWP models, used for short-range forecasts, to predict stratocumulus and the sensitivity of the forecasts to the initial conditions and physical parametrisations. In section 2 the performance of the models used prior to the Unified Model is discussed. In section 3 the sensitivity of simulations of the diurnal evolution of marine stratocumulus using a single column version of the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model to resolution and physical parametrisations is described. The results of a case study used to develop the mesoscale version of the Unified Model are presented in section 4 and in section 5 the results of an investigation of the recent operational performance of the limited are a and mesoscale versions of the Unified Model are discussed. Conclusions are presented in section 6.