Joint Centre for Mesoscale Meteorology (JCMM)

Short-range forecasting of stratocumulus:  initialization V prediction
by Susan P Ballard, Simon D Jackson and B Macpherson

This paper addresses the ability of the UK Met Office NWP models, used for short-range forecasts, to predict stratocumulus and the sensitivity of the forecasts to the initial conditions and physical parametrisations.  In section 2 the performance of the models used prior to the Unified Model is discussed.  In section 3 the sensitivity of simulations of the diurnal evolution of marine stratocumulus using a single column version of the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model to resolution and physical parametrisations is described.  The results of a case study used to develop the mesoscale version of the Unified Model are presented in section 4 and in section 5 the results of an investigation of the recent operational performance of the limited are a and mesoscale versions of the Unified Model are discussed.  Conclusions are presented in section 6.

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