Quasi-stationary convective storms in the UK

Robert Warren
Dr Dan Kirshbaum
Dr Bob Plant
Dr Humphrey Lean

Quasi-stationary convective storms (QSCSs) occur when convective cells repeatedly develop and pass over a confined region, such that the overall storm system has near-zero velocity. These storms are of significant interest to forecasters due to their ability to produce locally large rainfall accumulations and flash flooding. Many case studies of severe, flash flood-producing QSCSs exist in the literature, most from the United States and the Mediterranean region. In contrast, relatively little work has been done on these storms in the UK.

The aim of this project is to enhance current understanding of QSCSs in the UK through case study analyses, idealised modelling, and the development of a climatology of these events. In particular, we would like to address the following questions:

1. How common are QSCSs in the UK?
2. How does the occurence of QSCSs vary seasonally and geographically?
3. What synoptic conditions favour the development of QSCSs?
4. What are the dominant mechanisms that anchor storms in a particular location?
5. How sensitive is storm anchoring to small changes in environmental conditions?
6. How well can we represent and predict QSCSs using the numerical modelling tools currently available to forecasters?

For more information on this work please see Robert Warren's webpage.