Research : predictions

Statistical decadal predictions of SSTs

We are exploring the potential to make statistical predictions of sea surface temperatures (SSTs), with a focus on the Atlantic Ocean. After demonstrating some methods on data from climate models, we are now analysing observations to provide a benchmark skill comparison for predictions made with initialised AOGCMs.

Relevant papers:

• Hawkins et al., 2011, 'Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of SSTs with a perfect model approach', Climate Dynamics, 37, 2495