Richard P. Allan Homepage

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I am professor of Climate Science at the University of Reading Department of Meteorology. My research is driven by the fundamental question: how much will Earth warm in the current century and what are the implications for the global water cycle, upon which societies and ecosystems depend? I use Earth Observation data to explore fluctuations in clouds, water vapour, rainfall and the Earth's radiative energy balance and use this information to assess the realism of climate prediction models and improve our understanding of the climate system. I was a lead author for the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th assessment report. latest CO2 increases

I have been Principal Investigator on a number of projects, including the recent NERC DEEP-C consortium. I am affiliated with National Centre for Earth Observation and the Walker Institute and have previously worked at NCAS Climate and the Met Office. Please see my Presentations and a list of my Publications which are also available on the University CENTAUR system.

joint recipient of the Gulbenkian Prize Institute of Physics Outstanding Reviewer Institute of Phyiscs Trusted Reviewer Publons Earth and Planetary Sciences review contributor

Latest CO2 concentrations and growth rates

Selected Publications (full list)

   (134) Trancoso R, J Syktus, RP Allan et al. (2024), Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population. Nature Comm. 15, 483, doi:10.1038/s41467-023-44513-3

    Allan RP (2023) Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation, Environ. Res. Lett., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acea36.

    Andrews T and co-authors including RP Allan (2022). On the effect of historical SST patterns on radiative feedback, J Geophys. Res., 127, e2022JD036675. doi:10.1029/2022JD036675 (See also Editor Highlight)

Allan RP, KM Willett, VO John & T Trent (2022), Global changes in water vapor 1979-2020, J. Geophys. Res., 127, doi:10.1029/2022JD036728

Wainwright CM, RP Allan & E Black (2022), Consistent trends in dry spell length in recent observations and future projections, Geophys. Res. Lett. 49, doi:10.1029/2021GL097231

Wainwright CM, E Black & RP Allan (2021), Future Changes in Wet and Dry Season Characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations, J. Hydrometeorology, 11, 2339-2357, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-21-0017.1 #openaccess

Watters D, A Batagglia & RP Allan (2021), The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation According to Multiple Decades of Global Satellite Observations, Three CMIP6 Models, and the ECMWF Reanalysis, J. Climate, 34, 5063-5080, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0966.1. #openaccess PDF

Allan RP and co-authors (2020) Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1472, , 49-75, doi: 10.1111/nyas.14337. PDF #openaccess (NYAS top cited and top downloaded paper)

Menary MB, J Robson, RP Allan and co-authors (2020), Aerosol-forced AMOC changes in CMIP6 historical simulations Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL088166. doi: 10.1029/2020GL088166. PDF

Loeb N, H. Wang, RP Allan and co-authors (2020)New Generation of Climate Models Track Recent Unprecedented Changes in Earth's Radiation Budget Observed by CERES, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086705, doi: 10.1029/2019GL086705. PDF (accepted version)

Schwarz M, D Folini, S Yang, RP Allan, M Wild (2020) Changes in atmospheric shortwave absorption as important driver of dimming and brightening, Nature Geoscience, 13, 110-115, doi: 10.1038/s41561-019-0528-y. PDF (accepted version) See also mention in Press release.

Wainwright and co-authors (2019), "Eastern African Paradox" rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains, npj Climate & Atmospheric Science, 2, 34, doi:10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7 (PDF #openaccess)

Hyder and co-authors (2018) Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors, Nature Communications, 9, 3625, doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-05634-2. PDF | Supplementary

Malavelle and co-authors (2017) Strong constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions, Nature, 546, 485-491, doi: 10.1038/nature22974 (PDF).

Allan, R. P., C. Liu, N. G. Loeb, M. D. Palmer, M. Roberts, D. Smith and P.-L. Vidale (2014) Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1002/2014GL060962 41, 5588-5597 (PDF)

Allan, R. P., C. Liu, M. Zahn, D. A. Lavers, E. Koukouvagias and A. Bodas-Salcedo (2014) Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations, Surv. Geophys., 35, 533-552, doi:10.1007/s10712-012-9213-z (PDF)

Lavers, D. A., R. P. Allan, G. Villarini, B. Lloyd-Hughes, D. J. Brayshaw and A. J. Wade (2013) Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Implications for Winter Flooding in Britain, Environmental. Res. Lett. 8, 034010 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034010 (PDF)

Liu, C. and R. P. Allan, (2013) Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850-2100, Environmental Research Letters, 8, 034002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034002 (PDF)

Loeb, N. G., J. M. Lyman, G. C. Johnson, R. P. Allan, D. R. Doelling, T. Wong, B. J. Soden and G. L. Stephens (2012), Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty, Nature Geoscience, 5, 110-113, doi:10.1038/ngeo1375 (PDF)
Lavers, D. A., R. P. Allan, E. F. Wood, G. Villarini, D. J. Brayshaw and A. J. Wade (2011) Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers, Geophys. Res. Lett. , 38, L23803, doi: 10.1029/2011GL049783. PDF

Haywood, J. M., R. P. Allan, J. Bornemann, P. Forster, P. N. Francis, S. Milton, G. Rädel, A. Rap, K. P. Shine and R. Thorpe (2009) A Case Study of the Radiative Forcing of Persistent Contrails Evolving into Contrail-Induced Cirrus J. Geophys. Res., 114,D24201, doi:10.1029/2009JD012650 (PDF)

Allan, R. P. and B. J. Soden (2008), Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes, Science, 321, (5895) p.1481-1484, doi:10.1126/science.1160787. Online (PDF)

Allan, R. P., A. Slingo, S.F. Milton and M.A. Brooks (2007), Evaluation of the Met Office global forecast model using Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) data, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 1993-2010, doi:10.1002/qj.166 (PDF)

Slingo, A., T. P. Ackerman, R. P. Allan, E. I. Kassianov, S. A. McFarlane, G. J. Robinson, J. C. Barnard, M. A. Miller, J. E. Harries, J. E. Russell, and S. Dewitte (2006), Observations of the impact of a major Saharan dust storm on the Earth's radiation balance, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24817, doi:10.1029/2006GL027869. PDF Version

Allan, R. P., M. A. Ringer, and A. Slingo (2003), Evaluation of moisture in the Hadley Centre Climate Model using simulations of HIRS water vapour channel radiances, Quarterly Journal of Royal Met. Soc., 129, 3371-3389. PDF Version

Wielicki, B. A., T. M. Wong, R. P. Allan, A. Slingo, J. T. Kiehl, B. J. Soden, C. T. Gordon, A. J. Miller, S.-K. Yang, D. A. Randall, F. Robertson, J. Susskind and H. Jacobowitz (2002), Evidence for Large Decadal Variability in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget, Science, 295, 841-844, doi: 10.1126/science.1065837. PDF

Allan, R. P., K.P. Shine, A. Slingo and J.A. Pamment (1999), The dependence of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation on surface temperature and relative humidity, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 2103-2126, doi:10.1002/qj.49712555809 PDF

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