THE WEATHER GAME

Details of scoring calculations

10 points are available for each predicted value, but only 5 are available for the tour location weather. The maximum possible score is 75 for a perfect prediction, which could be doubled to 150 if the joker is used.

Temperature forecasts

Each forecast should be to a precision of 0.1 oC. These forecasts will be scored as follows.

Difference from observation (d, oC)Score
d < 1.0 10 - d
1.1 <= d < 3.7 0.1 x floor(100-(3d)2)
3.7 <= d 0.1 x ceiling(20/(d-3)) - 5



Precipitation, wind gust, sunshine forecasts

Each forecast should be to a precision of 0.1. These forecasts will be scored as follows where f is the forecast value and o is the observed value.

Difference from observation (d, (oC, mm, hours))Score
All (( 10 - d ) + ( floor(150 - 150d/(1+max(f,o)))/10 - 5 )) /2



Tour location weather

5 points will be awarded if the weather at the tour location is correctly predicted, regardless of what the observed weather type is.


Climatology bonus

At the start of term you are asked to predict the mean daily maximum temperature and total rainfall between Monday of week 2 and Sunday of the final week. Predictions of each are required for cool, normal or warm mean temperature and dry, normal or wet for rainfall. 10 bonus points will be awarded for correctly predicting the temperature category and another 10 points for rainfall. If both are correctly predicted then a further 5 bonus points will be awarded, giving a maximum of 25 points.


Drop week

Each players lowest score is not counted for the purpose of determining the final standings, therefore if you miss a week of the game or have one particularly bad week you are still in with a chance of winning a prize. The dropped score will take effect after 2 weeks of the game.


Joker

Each player has a joker that they can use in one week. Playing the joker doubles the points scored in that week, whether positive or negative, so it is therefore advised to use the joker in a week that you are most confident.